A new briefing paper from Path to Smoke-Free examines the widening gap between Uzbekistan’s tobacco control ambitions and the policies most likely to achieve them.
Uzbekistan has 3.5 million smokers, 2.5 million nasvay consumers, and 30,000 tobacco-related deaths each year. It also bans a product category that leading regulatory agencies, including the U.S. FDA and Germany’s Federal Institute for Risk Assessment, recognize as posing much lower health risks than cigarettes.
Since May 2023, nicotine pouches have been illegal in Uzbekistan. In November 2025, electronic cigarettes were also banned. The stated goal is public health protection. The result, however, is different.
The numbers tell the story
According to the Path to Smoke-Free platform, Uzbekistan’s current trajectory puts it on course to reach smoke-free status—defined as a smoking prevalence of 5% or less—in 2067. If the country adopted the comprehensive approach that has made Sweden the European Union’s first smoke-free member state, that date would move to 2041. Matching the combined pace of global leaders like the United Kingdom, New Zealand, and Japan would bring it to 2046.
The difference is not just years on a chart. Expert estimates suggest that embracing innovation over prohibition could save as many as 464,000 lives in Uzbekistan.
What the ban has actually produced
Demand for nicotine pouches did not disappear when the ban took effect; it went underground. Tens of millions of pouches continue to circulate through illicit channels, beyond the reach of quality controls, age restrictions, or tax collection. Law enforcement in Tashkent has reported multiple seizures of smuggled products, confirming what prohibition research shows: banning a product with established consumer demand does not eliminate that demand. It simply criminalizes it.
Meanwhile, cigarettes remain freely available across the country. Nasvay, a traditional smokeless tobacco product linked to oral cancers and found by Kyoto University researchers to contain hazardous substances including pesticides, faces no comparable crackdown. The regulatory framework penalizes the safer product category while leaving the most harmful ones untouched.
A global trend Uzbekistan is missing
The briefing paper situates Uzbekistan’s choices within a broader global picture. Sweden’s transformation is well documented, but it is not the only example. The United Kingdom has halved its smoking rate in under a decade by integrating vaping into its cessation strategy. Japan saw cigarette sales plummet after embracing heated tobacco products. New Zealand’s regulated vaping market has cut adult smoking by over 50% while underage vaping has declined year on year, outperforming neighboring Australia’s ban-based approach.
In line with Uzbekistan’s context, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia have brought nicotine pouches into their formal regulatory frameworks. If regulated access is sound policy in Stockholm, London, and Abu Dhabi, the case for denying it to Tashkent deserves scrutiny.
Youth protection without prohibition
The paper also addresses the concern most often raised in defense of bans: protecting young people. The examples of Greece and New Zealand are instructive. Greece deployed digital age-verification tools and a national retail register in 2025, enforcing strict youth protections without restricting adult access. New Zealand’s licensed adult-only retail model has achieved declining underage use alongside rapidly falling adult smoking rates. Technology and enforcement, these cases show, are more effective than prohibition at keeping products out of the hands of minors.
